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Morgan Stanley (MS) Q1 Earnings Beat on Higher NII, Stock Down

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Morgan Stanley’s (MS - Free Report) first-quarter 2023 earnings of $1.70 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67. The bottom line, however, reflects a decline of 16% from the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for earnings was $1.69.

Shares of MS lost more than 4% in pre-market trading despite better-than-expected earnings. Dismal trading and investment banking performance weighed on investor sentiments.

An increase in net interest income (NII), driven by a rise in total loan balance (up 7% year over year) and higher interest rates, majorly supported the top line.

As expected, the performance of the investment banking (“IB”) business was weak. Equity underwriting fees decreased 22% from the prior-year quarter and fixed-income underwriting declined 6%. Advisory fees were down 32%. Therefore, IB fees declined 24%.

Further, Morgan Stanley’s trading business wasn’t able to capitalize on huge volatility and client activity. Fixed-income trading revenues decreased 12% and equity trading income declined 14%.

Higher operating expenses and provisions were the other headwinds during the quarter.

Net income applicable to common shareholders was $2.84 billion, down 20% from the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $2.73 billion.

Revenues Decline, Expenses Rise

Quarterly net revenues were $14.52 billion, down 2% from the prior-year quarter. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.91 billion. Our estimate for revenues was $13.47 billion.

NII was $2.35 billion, up 6%. The upside was largely driven by a rise in interest income, partly offset by higher interest expenses. We had projected NII of $2.42 billion for the first quarter.

Total non-interest revenues of $12.17 billion decreased 3%. Our estimate for the metric was $11.05 billion.

Total non-interest expenses were $10.52 billion, up 4%. Our estimate for expenses was $9.65 billion.

Provision for credit losses was $234 million in the first quarter, up significantly from $57 million recorded in the prior-year quarter.

Quarterly Segment Performance

Institutional Securities: Pre-tax income was $1.89 billion, down 32% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the same was $1.88 billion. Net revenues were $6.8 billion, down 11%. We had projected total revenues of $6.1 billion. The downside resulted from a fall in investment banking revenues and fixed-income and equity trading revenues.

Wealth Management: Pre-tax income totaled $1.71 billion, up 9% year over year. Our estimate for the same was $1.67 billion. Net revenues were $6.56 billion, up 11%, driven by higher net interest income. We had projected total revenues of $6.16 billion.

Total client assets were $4.56 trillion as of Mar 31, 2023, down 6% year over year.

Investment Management: Pre-tax income was $166 million, falling 27% from the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the same was $200.7 million. Net revenues were $1.29 billion, down 3%. The fall was due to a decline in asset management and related fees, partly offset by a rise in performance-based income and other income. We had projected total revenues of $1.34 billion.

As of Mar 31, 2023, total assets under management or supervision were $1.36 trillion, down 6% from Mar 31, 2022.

Capital Position Strong

As of Mar 31, 2023, the book value per share was $55.13, down from $54.18 in the corresponding period of 2022. The tangible book value per share was $40.68, down from $39.91 as of Mar 31, 2022.

Morgan Stanley’s Tier 1 capital ratio (advanced approach) was 17.5% compared with 17.6% in the year-ago quarter. Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 15.6%, down from 15.9% a year ago.

Share Repurchase Update

In the reported quarter, Morgan Stanley repurchased 16 million shares for $1.5 billion.

Our View

Elevated expenses due to investments in franchise will likely continue to hurt Morgan Stanley’s profits. Uncertainty about the performance of the capital markets makes us apprehensive. Yet, the company’s increased focus on corporate lending will likely keep aiding revenues. Also, higher interest rates are expected to aid net interest income growth.
 

Morgan Stanley Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Morgan Stanley Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Morgan Stanley price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Morgan Stanley Quote

Currently, Morgan Stanley carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performance of Other Banks

Wells Fargo’s (WFC - Free Report) first-quarter 2023 earnings per share of $1.23 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15. The figure improved 35% year over year.

WFC’s results benefited from higher net interest income, rising rates and solid average loan growth. A fall in non-interest expenses acted as another tailwind. Yet, dismal non-interest income, higher provisions and weakness in the mortgage business were the major undermining factors for WFC.

Citigroup Inc.’s (C - Free Report) first-quarter 2023 earnings per share (excluding divestiture-related impacts) of $1.86 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66. Our estimate for earnings was $1.40 per share.

Citigroup witnessed revenue growth in the quarter, backed by higher revenues in the Institutional Clients Group, and Personal Banking and Wealth Management segments. However, the higher cost of credit was a spoilsport.


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